I sold my machinedrum once, then promptly spent the next year hunting one down again. If there’s anyway for you to try out an AR before selling your MD, that would be the safest rout!
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I’m going to answer some of your questions from much earlier, as this is quickly becoming an “I like your old stuff better than your new stuff” thread like the ‘Reissue’ one 
Mod wheel/aftertouch/pitch bend: AR might respond to mod wheel and pitch bend, but there is no way to map parameters for these on the AR. It does respond to aftertouch and velocity, and the pads are both velocity sensitive and have aftertouch. People hate on the pads and they’re nothing like MCP/Machine pads, but they’re fine. I’ve had my Mk1 for 6 years and either they’ve softened or I’ve got used to them.
Expressiveness: AR excels here, and is the one place nothing much else comes close. People love to go on about the 16 assignable lfo’s of the MD, but check this - each pad on the AR has 4 assignable destinations for velocity and 4 for aftertouch. These can be positive or negative values. Then you have the 12 performance macros. And then 12 scenes. AR is modulation heaven - but it’s meant to be played rather than ‘programmed’ modulation. It’s sounds like this is what you want when you say ‘expressive’.
Melodic use: it’s reasonable - samples and some machines do well. I keep pointing people to this thread when they want to know if the Rytm can be used for melodic material - RYTM ambient machine
Also have a listen to @George_Michael aka Glo-Phase’s iconic AR sets. Lots of melodic pieces, many early ones solo on the AR - https://www.elektronauts.com/t/glo-phase-ar-sets
Also @KOTARE made some mind blowing stuff with the Rytm, different kind of direction - https://www.elektronauts.com/t/textural-rytm
Having said that, MD with the MCL is pretty damn good for melodic stuff now that you can just play a keyboard right into it.
They do cover very different sonic territory. AR feels like being wrapped up in a woollen blanket. The blanket can be scratchy though, as the machine is terribly frustrating at times like all the Elektron’s.
MD can be warm too, but I know what you mean by ‘warming up digital’ - it’s warm like a cup of tea when your hiking on a cloudy day in winter. Fleeting!
Ultimately it’s going to be a preference. People here are going to tell you one is better than another, but they’re just wrong. Only you can decide that. They’re both excellent, and I wouldn’t part with either.
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I think the Roland TR-8S should at least be on your radar if this is the case.
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I think this is a good point. And if you want ‘simplicity’ the AR is not necessarily going to help.
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I think the AR sound engines are not that versatile compared what is on offer with the MD, and some don’t sound that good (snares and toms for example). Modulation options are also far from what the MD does with 16 freely assignable LFO’s. With the UW model you can enen do OT style live resampling and playback, and the 12 bit samples sound crispy.
AR is great, don’t get me wrong, but it always sounds a bit round. Almost every time I jam out a new pattern with my MD, it ends up being a new song. It’s an inspiring device, and I love it for that.
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My AR does not agree 
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The track is great! Really energetic, great mix, great sound design. I want to make my AR sound like that 
… However, it’s definitely still “round”, to my ears. The MD demos I’ve heard are way more angular, sharp, cripsy/crinkly.
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Yeah, well, you know, that’s just, like, your opinion, man.
Made a similar kind of beat with this remix a few years back using AR on drums, so yeah i know it can do crispy beats if you utilize the compressor and distortion. I’m still liking MD more. 
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OK I think we’ve now definitely confirmed that everyone simply needs both MD and AR
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Everything else you’re saying is true and helpful, but I didn’t notice anyone saying the MD was better than the AR or MC in this thread in a pretentious or hip way, just comparing subjective experiences on the different machines for different approaches, and expressing sellers remorse to give our poster an idea of what it looks like (emotionally )to switch . No doubt, your reply addressing OPs concerns is very useful though
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I keep thinking about the AR. Thought of more reasons I think it’s going to be better for me than MD.
- Ability to layer samples and analog. It’s almost like having 12 extra tracks. Combine that with sound and sample locking…
- Knowing what sound is likely to be assigned to a particular track. The total freedom of the MD is a mixed blessing.
- 128 samples vs 48
- 11 minutes sample memory vs like 1 minute
- More dedicated buttons. That page button is my least favorite aspect to the MD. And the miserly 4 bank buttons that made me have to remove the BANK GROUP button cap to keep me from accidentally pressing it instead of FUNCTION.
It comes down to the pads, which might kill things if they’re even worse than M:C’s. How bad are they, really? On the MKI vs the MKII? Do they break in? My M:C seems to be breaking in and I use the pads more and more often.
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I m no finger drummer. Just use them for muting.
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Mk1 were needing two-finger hits.
Mk2 are good, to me, but I haven’t been spoiled by MPC.
They are definitely way better than M:C, it’s incomparable.
Plus you can toggle to fixed velocity in a blink, so it’s really easy to reach what you want, IMO.
Combined to the Elektron sequencer in its modern version, it’s really solid.
One could argue that one LFO is not enough, that the envelope is not snappy enough, etc, but with onboard resampling you can easily overcome such limitations.
Oh, and don’t overlook Overbridge: it might be the box for which multiple tracks come the most handy to refine a mix.
Just take the time to sample the hell out of your MD, it’s likely you won’t see it ever again.
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IMO, ARMk2 pads are waaay better than m:c. You have to give ‘em some force but you can learn to play them pretty accurately. Can’t comment on mk1.
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To be honest this whole thread seems like you just want to pave the way towards what you want. To me that sounds like an AR.
Relating to the above, I think maybe you could be best situated with a second M:C?
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I have no Objective proof but I feel like mine have gotten softer over time as well.
If I were playing daily I might attribute it to growing finger strength, but that isn’t the case (unfortunately).
My thoughts would be that you might not think they were great for “full kit” finger drumming (playing the whole drum set in one go).
But, If you’re a “play one drum sound expressively” at a time kind of player, you’ll probably be okay with them.
Edit: I have an MPC1000 with fat pads
Have played on Ableton Push, Launchpads, Maschine 1-3 etc…
They fall below MPC and Maschine, but above the smaller pad devices listed IMO.
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I can hit full velocity with a single finger tap on my Mk1 (now). But it’s not fantastically accurate like Maschine pads for example. I am a shit finger drummer though. Works fine for triggering the modulation parameters.
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I advise you to play with both index and middle finger, you’ll reach a better precision.
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Must… not… make… very inappropriate… pun…
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Yup… or a Digitakt or a Model:Samples